Ill-Advised Day After Bowl Game Predictions

The sack of weasels isn't even close to being as crazy as the man on the left at times.

The sack of weasels isn't even close to being as crazy as the man on the left at times.

Cotton Bowl – The reason a Texas Tech/Ole Miss match-up fascinates so many is not only because they are invited in a location somewhat available to both fan bases, but the personality and tendencies of both coaches. Mike Leach is the Pirate of the Skies, his luster diminshed just slightly after leaving his BCS title hopes in Norman; Houston Nutt is the boredline insane hick who will throw every manner of trick at you — he calls it as if he has nothing to lose, but is uneven enough to win a big game he’s not exepcted to and blow the next one on a bizarre coaching decision. On pure assembled talent alone, Tech should win this, but any time you think a Nutt team isn’t talented enough to pull it off, you get made to look like a fool. Tech by no more than a touchdown.  The line of -4 is just about right.

Sugar Bowl – Everyone’s hoping for a Boise State, but many are resigned to a Hawai’i. Utah is likely somewhere in the middle. This time they’re not lining up against a Big East patsy like Pitt a few years back; they get the SEC’s power-hitting pro-set team.  What the Utes need to do — MUST do if they want a realistic shot at the upset — is to make John Parker Wilson look like the incosntent thing he can be. I’m not sure Glenn Coffee and Mark Ingram will play poorly enough to force him to have to be that.  Meanwhile, the Utes will score some — but Terrance Cody and the rest of the Bama front seven are a rather revved-up TCU, hungry for redemption after falling before the Florida attack in the SEC championship game. Tide by two scores, in the range of 10-14 points.

Liberty Bowl – Fairly simple. Kentucky is atrocious on offense. If East Carolina can at be mediocre in its attack, this should be handled rather easily.

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Rushing The Field: Poll Anarchy

Well, seven weeks in and we’ve got the same damned problem we had last year with college football (or non-problem, for without these issues, the sport isn’t as half as fun to discuss or opine on.)  The field has leveled out so greatly that you have three of the top five getting knocked off on a Saturday.

Oklahoma and Texas were essentially trading blows for about three quarters, with Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy upping the ante on who would be favored in the Heisman race. Texas turned it in the 4th quarter: prodding Bradford into picks and getting big play from McCoy (who was 28-35 passing, good accuracy) along with a huge 60-yard run from Chris Ogbonnaya, and the Horns took the win 45-35. However, any analysis of this game without a lament about the sorry Big 12 officials in charge is incomplete. I understand the reasons for stringent rules about roughing the passer or personal foul calls; you want to keep people from getting hurt. McCoy flopped twice on ruhses out of bounds that got called for 15-yard flags, he and Bradford both were given the gift of flags on roughing penalties that shouldn’t have been called, an OU interception that should have been in the first half wasn’t, and the OU punter put on an acting job that Cristiano Ronaldo would have been ashamed of.

The Swamp is an entirely different beast of a stadium, particularly for a new starting QB like Jarrett Lee in his first road game as LSU “supplied the butt” for Florida to whip, in Mike Patrick’s parlance.  Florida got out to a 20-0 lead at one point; LSU closed it to 6 points, but the Gators’ defense finally stepped up, turning the multitude of running backs of LSU into an ineffective rotation, and forcing them to try to win on Lee’s arm — never a good prospect for a redshirt freshman.  Urban Meyer’s squad wound up putting half a hundred on ’em in the first complete game where Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin were not the sole playmakers in the Gator spread.

T. Boone Pickens’ money is apparently going to good use; it’s enough to buy a defense when there apparently was none.  A 28-23 upset of Missouri at Columbia gives Oklahoma State some of the respect they’ve been seeking, as no other team made Chase Daniel look out of sync as often as the Cowboys did (Mizzou fans may be tempted to blame the fact that Daniel was wearing #25 in honor of a fallen teammate rather than his usual #10 jersey), forcing him into crucial picks late.  Zac Robinson was a revelation for those of us who haven’t taken the time to watch him, pulling touchdown passes out of his ass. One in particular impressed me in the second half: he rolled out left and had NOTHING at the time downfield, he’d just avoided a sack, and to avoid another one, he hurled it to a spot in the end zone where he had two receivers against one cornerback — leap, catch, touchdown.

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The Shakedown: Six Days ‘Til Kickoff

Come next Saturday, I’ll be planted in front of the TV for every Saturday afterwards as giant dudes bash heads for school pride (or something like that.) Better take a look at who’s competing for the chip this year, and who’s got the best shot. (Note: this is how I’ve arranged the top 10, I know Georgia’s #1 going in, folks.)

(Rey Maualuga is coming for you, puny quarterbacks.)

1. USC – This isn’t pure SoCal homerism. I think the Trojans get the better of the Buckeyes and the Pac-10 isn’t a whole lot outside of Arizona State this year. If Mark Sanchez (or Mitch Mustain) can be anything resembling good and there is a wide receiver that stands out, they have the easiest path to get to the MNC game. The defense will be nasty, but the offense needs a star to pop out — whether that’s Joe McKnight, Vidal Hazelton, Damian Williams, somebody needs to be a go-to-guy. Of course, you can win big-time with team effort, and the fact that the Pac-10 looks to be in a bad swoon (Arizona State is the only other program that has any upside to look at this year) means a nice, laid-out path to the BCS game. Of course, we wrote all this last year before Stanford.

2. Ohio State – If there is any sort of karmic justice in the sport, OSU will find a way to nab a 2nd loss after losing to USC, thus promptly knocking them out of title contention. However, it took a miracle from Illinois to do it and they still have the best talent in the Big 10, by a long shot.  Their odds of making it back to the BCS title game really do depend on how much the defense can make up for losing Vernon Gholston to Sundays and whether Todd Boeckman will be consistent enough in throwing to the two Brians at wide receiver. If not, the Sweater Vest may bring in Terrelle Pryor earlier than he’d like to.

3. Georgia – The Dawgs’ in-conference schedule will eat them up. Probably won’t have more than one loss, but I don’t think they make it unscathed. They could live up to this pre-season #1 ranking they have if Matthew Stafford can up his completion percentage and Knowshon Moreno continues the form that had everyone drooling last year. Probably second best defense in conference to LSU.

4. Oklahoma – Bob Stoops has a real good chance to go undefeated in the Big 12 — but that defense allows way too much on the ground. The Sooners have laid eggs in their last few bowl games, but bring Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray back for what was a good, solid offensive attack last season. That said, there are few coaches I loathe more than Stoops — he’s whiny and petulant, an SEC coach without a bit of the inherent humor that comes with coaching in that conference.  He should be fortunate that OSU has lost two straight BCS championship games — otherwise, someone would notice he’s 0 for his last 4 BCS bowl games in the past four years.

5. Mizzou – If the Tigers’ vaunted defensive haul is true, then Chase Daniel and Co. stand a real good shot at taking out Oklahoma come Big 12 Championship Game time — and even though teams will probably double team Jeremy Maclin all season, it will only make Daniel and the spread attack in Columbia that much more dangerous. The thought that Gary Pinkel has a bunch of defensive starters returning and is confident that this team will keep others out of the end zone could make them a dark horse favorite if the tops falter.

6. LSU – Fear the Hat, but Les Miles has a quarterback deficiency. If Ryan Perrilloux hadn’t been such a dunce cap, this team likely would have been #2 pre-season with their loaded status at all the skill positions on offense and a robust defense returning, even with Glenn Dorsey moving on to play on Sundays. As is, they’re a favorite for the SEC West crown and a chance to knock off UGA.

7. Florida – The Gators are here until the team proves it has a secondary, essentially. I don’t care how much Tim Tebow you throw at opponents — there are teams they won’t be able to keep out of the end zone and there are defenses (the U, LSU, Georgia) that will pound Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Emmanuel Moody around.

8. Texas Tech – Mike Leach’s Pirate Academy could put a very real scare into OU, Texas and any of the Big 12 South’s regular powers. I don’t expect them to make a championship game yet — but the defense will be a load better and Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are back. If nothing else, Leach’s teams are nothing short of fun to watch — and hopefully Fox Sports will do a lot of regional games with them.

9. Clemson – In a very, very weak ACC (Virgina Tech is offensively depleted; Boston College is trying to replace Matt Ryan), Tommy Bowden is running out of excuses. He has Cullen Harper, a backfield tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller (plus a freshman back by the name of Jamie Harper hoping to get PT), and he’s fallen short the past few years. An ACC title has to be his or he may not be back.

10. West Virginia – The Mountaineers go as far as Pat White’s legs and arm will take them, and as long as Bill Stewart will stay out of the way as head coach. (This was still an epic hiring error.) They certainly won’t be in a position to make the BCS game — not that the conference is great, but when USF has your number, no division is yours.

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Above The Rim: Down and Dirty

NBA first, college ball after the jump.

I would be mildly surprised after watching the highlights of Utah’s win over Dallas if Dirk Nowitzki isn’t suspended for the flagrant foul on Andrei Kirilenko. It looked bad on tape, never mind what it was like during the game itself.  What really screwed the Mavs over is that not only were they unable to score for several stretches, but one Utah bench player, Kyle Korver, outscored Dallas’ bench.

The Hornets have made it official: the Knicks have now suffered seven straight losing seasons, punctuating it by allowing a 10-0 run by the Hornets to close it out. Chris Paul lead with 27.

The tiff between Mike Dunleavy and Donald Sterling unofficially torpedoed the Clippers, and now teams like the 76ers are thrashing them so solidly that any reminder that the other team in Staples made the playoffs two years ago are becoming very, very distant.  Eight of the team’s last 11 losses have been by double digits — in fact, this is the second time that Philly has handed them a 20+ point whooping in the past month.

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Short Notes On College Hoops

Arizona is probably going to miss the tournament save a very deep run in the Pac-10 tournament — and losing a very, very close game to UCLA was really the last thing the Wildcats needed.  Obviously, most teams in college hoops don’t have a way to really body up on Kevin Love, but the Wildcats don’t have enough talent on the floor to match up in a conference with one stand-out team and a few other good ones crowding for space (Arizona State, Wazzu, USC) and tourney bids.   The program may be in transition, and it needs a solid post player to go with it next season.

Tennessee ekes out a needed victory over a surprisingly resilient Kentucky squad, one without Patrick Patterson — and while it does give us a glimpse of how the Vols were able to bounce back, I’m a bit more impressed with the work Kentucky is doing after such a tough start to the season.  Billy Clyde Gillispie will be okay in Lexington — if he keeps being competitive now, wait until more of his recruits come in to town.

Is getting blown out by 29 points merely a blip or a harbinger for Indiana? The recent chain of events in Bloomington doesn’t necessarily point to anything good in that regard, but considering that this is the Big Ten we are talking about, the Hoosiers have enough talent to get over, if not actually being a Final Four threat.  The Spartans just came out hot early and got so far in front that it wasn’t ever really close.

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Take The Skinned and Headless Bowling, III.

USC 49, Illinois 17 – Essentially, the Illini fucked themselves; Juice Williams got squeezed with sacks and INTs, and when the Trojans made their few errors on plays, Illinois couldn’t take advantage of the opportunities — thus, the rout everyone expected came to fruition, and only fed fuel that the BCS selection committee couldn’t get it right yet again due to the insistence on conference selection. The Trojans racked up an astonishing 633 yards of offense.

Georgia 41, Hawaii 10 – Thus, Bizarro College Football season ends appropriately, with no unbeaten teams in the mid-major and big-time conferences. That it happened in such ugly fashion is another matter (and probably expected as much as USC’s dismantling of Illinois.)  Carping about being robbed of the BCS championship aside from the Georgia players (win your conference and we’ll talk), they took it out on Colt Brennan, sacking him eight times and rushing him into throws while running all over the Warriors defense. I’d really like to thank the BCS for its lame selection criteria — if they hadn’t stuck to their guns, we could have seen USC vs. UGA, and no one would have wanted that.

Michigan 41, Florida 35 – There’s a reason Florida was a three-loss team. I just didn’t ffigure that Ron English had figured out how to get his guys to defend 21st century offenses.  That said, this rode on the arm of Chad Henne and the hands of both Adrian Arringotn and Mario Manningham — as well as the usual play calling of “run Mike Hart up the middle.”  Florida’s weak spot all season on defense has been the secondary, and it turned into a shoot out that the Gators couldn’t pull out. Nice way to go out for the senior class — which hadn’t won a bowl game — and for Lloyd Carr.

Texas Tech 31, Virginia 28 – 14 points in under 4 minutes in the 4th quarter. Such are the ways of the Lubbock Pirate Academy.  After being shut down by the Cavaliers’ defense (giving up two safeties in the process), Graham Harrell and the Red Raiders made their way back via late turnovers and crucial defensive stops. Harrell threw for 407 yards on 44 completions (out of 69 attempts!)

Missouri 28, Arkansas 7 – You’d have been right to wonder if the Heisman Trophy candidate playing running back in this game wasn’t on Missouri rather than Arkansas. Tony Temple rushed for more than 200 yards and four touchdowns in a performance that turned star QB Chase Daniel into an afterthought.  McFadden did get into the end zone, but came out in the third quarter.

Tennessee 21, Wisconsin 17 – Vols QB Erik Ainge finishes with 345 passing and two scores to end his college career, and Tyler Donovan made a few mistakes along the way, including a fourth quarter pick on an attempt on a late drive in the Outback Bowl. The future for the Vols will be questionable as ususal — not for coach Phil Fulmer, but he’ll have to revamp his offensive staff yet again with David Cutcliffe and Trooper Taylor both bailing out.

Photo: AP/Mark J. Terrill