God, I was awful last week, getting a 5-8 record. I’m 33-28 on the season, which is reasonable. Home team in CAPS. I’m only picking 12 games instead of 13 this week, because Vegas has pulled Falcons-Packers off the board, even with the possibility of Aaron Rodgers missing the game.
Titans (-3) over RAVENS – I think Joe Flacco will flinch a bit more when he meets Albert Haynesworth up close. Also, Chris Johnson is a stud and will get some good yardage this week, despite the tough Ravens’ D.
PANTHERS (-9.5) over Chiefs – Carolina’s defense isn’t Denver’s by any means, and KC is on the road. Expect a regression from last week.
Bears (-3) over LIONS – I think this line is being too kind to Detroit. It presumes some major offensive inefficiency by Chicago and an ability to stop teams by the Lions. No thanks.
TEXANS (+3) over Colts – It’s going to get tougher for Indy before it gets better, and the Houston offense was starting to get clicking again last week.
Chargers (-6.5) over DOLPHINS – Either a competitive shootout or a complete blowout. Either way, I think San Diego wins by a touchdown at the very least.
GIANTS (-7) over Seahawks – The “never bet on Seattle traveling further east than St. Louis” rule remains in effect.
Redskins (+6) over EAGLES – Brian Westbrook is still iffy for this game. Not good news, and enough to make me take the points.
Buccaneers (+3) over BRONCOS – I hate making this call, but Denver’s defense blows goats and can be run on thoroughly, plus Tampa has the kind of defense that can make Jay Cutler throw ill-advised picks.
Bills (+1) over CARDINALS – Who’s the bright motherfucker in Vegas who gave Arizona any favoritism after they got shelled in Jersey last week? Show an undefeated team some respect.
Bengals (+17) over COWBOYS – Not to win, mind you, but in what world do the Cowboys get spreads like they’re last year’s Patriots? Now, maybe Carson Palmer might not play again. Maybe that’s it. But I’m not feeling this spread for Dallas.
49ERS (+3) over Patriots – Has Matt Cassel convincingly beaten anyone? Combine that with a Mike Martz offense that likes to run plays quickly, add in the aging Pats defense, and you have a recipe for a home upset.
JAGUARS (-4) over Steelers – Vengeance shall be David Garrard’s, and the Pitt offense is taking too long to clock back up to speed.
Vikings (+3) over SAINTS – I suspect the New Orleans defense will give Adrian Peterson a shot at one of those really remarkable personal best-type games.