A Fool And His Money: Ow, Ow, Ow

I went 8-8 last week, no pushes so far. Hopefully, the warm-up is better for the picks this week. As usual, home teams in CAPS:

Titans (+1) over BENGALS – Am I wrong in thinking that Kerry Collins will be fine as far as getting Tennessee to 2-0? Cincy looked AWFUL last week and I don’t think homefield changes a thing with their deficiencies.

Buffalo (+5.5) over JAGUARS – Mind you, I’m not picking the Bills to win outright, but they specialize in defense and special teams, and against teams like that, giving 6 seems like too much.

CHIEFS (-3.5) over Raiders – I hate even picking this game. It’s a home team pick because both teams suck.

Colts (-1.5) over VIKINGS – Peyton over Tavaris. That’s really the logic involved here, although there is a chance the Minnesota pass rush could get off on a weakened Colts O-line.

Bears (+3) over PANTHERS – Two road wins for Chicago a bit too much? Well, I liked a lot of what I saw out of that defense, and they could give Jake Delhomme some issues.

Packers (-3) over LIONS – Detroit: suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. Wonder how Jon Kitna yells on the sideline since he apparently does not swear. We’ll be seeing a lot of that.

Giants (-8.5) over RAMS – Sometimes, spreads of more than a touchdown make me nervous, but St. Louis looked so atrocious last week against Philly that this seems more than fair, and considering that Plaxico Burress is on the field, two touchdowns seems like a reasonable margin for Sunday.

Saints (PICK) over REDSKINS – I honestly want to know who the fuck thinks the Redskins have a chance. I don’t care how long Marques Colston is out for — we are talking about Drew Brees and an endless number of passing options against a crappy pass rush.

BUCCANEERS (-8.5) over Falcons – This will be the first week Matt Ryan faces an actual defense. I expect issues and at least one pick six.

SEAHAWKS (-7) over 49ers – Despite having a nameless wide receiving corps and an ailing Matt Hasselbeck, this team is shamed enough right now to take it out on someone, and that someone is one of the weak division rivals they pummel twice a season.

JETS (-1.5) over Patriots – I can’t bet on Matt Cassel until I see what he can do for a full game first.

BRONCOS (+1) over Chargers – I’m pretty sure the Bolts have lit up Denver in Mile High the last couple of times, but something about this team doesn’t look quite right. Officially losing Shawne Merriman for the season changes the defense in a big way, and there will likely be a Norv Turner brain fart late.

Dolphins (+6.5) over CARDINALS – Arizona only looks impressive when it plays the Rams and the 49ers. Expect a liberal dose of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to nail their defense to the wall.

Steelers (-6) over BROWNS – There was absolutely nothing in last week’s game against the Cowboys that indicates Cleveland can handle a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball. Problem is, Pittsburgh looks like the AFC equivalent of that team.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Ravens – See Bucs over Falcons pick, and apply similar logic to Joe Flacco.

Eagles (+7) over COWBOYS – Shootout, yes. Dallas by a touchdown. No. I see 3-or-4 point win either way, and if it’s going to be any sort of blowout, it’s because Philly’s defense hits Tony Romo early and often. (I am taking a very big risk with him starting my fantasy team.) The O/U for this game is 47, and if you have extra cash, take the over.

One Response

  1. This week’s line deserves special commemoration: it’s the first time in who knows how long that New England has been GIVEN points in a matchup. Against the Jets, no less!

    I picked 10 road teams to win this week, and that makes me a little antsy. But the only one I can really see going the other way on is the Panthers — and I can never bring myself to pick against Chicago regardless of the matchup. If they do the “unthinkable” and win, as they did last week, I want to be in on the ground floor. :)

    I’m with you on the Colts game — I think getting run over by Matt Forte gets Bob Sanders angry, and if the Vikes have to rely on Tarvaris to win, they lose. I’m also with you on the Seahawks game — I think flying out East does real damage to any West team’s abilities, and Buffalo has looked like a team that’s arrived since preseason started. The Seachickens will bounce back against a division opponent at home, especially a crappy one like the Niners.

    But I went with the Pats; they’re playing at home and Belichick is too much the evil genius not to put Cassel in a position to win. You know he wouldn’t have stayed the backup if Bill didn’t think he could run the offense, and Brady going down didn’t do anything to NE’s defense. Favre is of course Favre, but in a league where Kyle Orton can wind up with a better QB rating than Peyton Manning, clearly there are other pieces of the puzzle worth looking at besides QB play. And a Jets team that needs a Brett Favre Miracle Throw™ to beat the Dolphins is not ready to beat the Pats in Foxboro regardless of who’s under center, on either side.

    I also picked the Cowboys to cover. Romo’s generally good in prime time (except in the playoffs), and Dallas owned Cleveland’s improved OL last week. I’m guessing they can do the same to Philly, especially at home.

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