A Fool And His Money, Week 16.

7-9 last week, 116-108 overall. Home teams in bold.

Rams (+7.5) over Steelers – The Steelers have a tendency to lose gimme road games this year, and for some reason, this may not be an exception, despite the debilitated Rams attack. Feel free to pick Pitt to win overall, but take the points.

Cowboys (-11.5) over Panthers – Despite losing to the Eagles, the Boys are still miles in front of the Panthers in terms of quality. Besides, the Cowboys have to fight for homefield now. They’ll come ready.

Chiefs (+4.5) over Lions – I hate both of these teams, and I’m not sure which has had a worse collapse. I’m taking the Chiefs because Detroit has probably deflated more.

Colts (-7.5) over Texans – Mario Williams might get to Peyton a couple times; the Texans’ front seven might give the Colts some trouble — they have a 2 seed locked and might rest people. But I’m not sure Sage Rosenfels to Andre Johnson is enough to keep up.

Jaguars (-12.5) over Raiders – Such a disparity in talent levels plus Al Davis’ need to waste an offensive series or two by forcing Kiffin to play JaMarcus Russell.

Packers (-7.5) over Bears – Gunslinger vs. Neckbeard.  The Gunslinger has a running game.  Gunslinger wins, as long as his coach is smart enough to tell the kickers not to go anywhere near Devin Hester.

Bills (+3.5) over Giants – Yes, the Giants play horribly at home. But this has the makings of a fall from the playoffs all over it.

Saints (-3.5) over Eagles – Essentially, they are putting the ball in Drew Brees’ hands and having him win games for them (while Aaron Stecker absorbs some carries). This has been working for whatever reason. Last week’s shutdown of the Cowboys was largely a defensive thing. I think they’ll have a tougher time with Brees trying to make a shootout out of it.

Browns (-3.5) over Bengals – Cincy is in such a shambles, but the Browns defense is just as bad as theirs (and was aided to a shutout by the snow.)  Cleveland has more to play for and more consistent weapons.

Cardinals (-10.5) over Falcons – Required pick. Easy call.

Buccaneers (-7.5) over 49ers – Despite the surprise beating the Niners put on the Bengals, the Bucs actually present a form of defense.  Shaun Hill will be facing something a bit mroe difficult this time.

Dolphins (+21.5) over Patriots – They’re not going to give the Pats their first loss, but  considering possible weather in Foxborough and the newfound rushing, Belichick may not be able to make it more than three touchdowns difference.

Seahawks (-10.5) over Ravens – Baltimore is in a bad state. Maybe they have half a chance if Troy Smith gets to start, get a spark going.

Titans (-8.5) over Jets – Tough defense and an offense that exploits the holes that the Jets have in the defense (particularly with the run) should give Vince Young the win.

Redskins (+7.5) over Vikings – Determined by running games and rushing defense. This will be closer than a touchdown.

Chargers (-9.5) over Broncos – Ugh. I’m live-blogging this on Monday night at AA, and even I’m not so sure why I’m doing it outside of masochism. Eventually I will pen a tribute to the hideous nature of the Denver defense, but I can’t bring myself to do it yet.


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