Miss me? Doubt it, but the computer is back and we’re rolling now. Home teams in bold this time. 9-5 last week, 78-66 this season. As usual, consider the source for these picks before betting.
Bucs (-3.5) over Falcons – Yes, the Bucs are heading a shitty division, but there’s a reason for this, and they should be able to cover in a road game (I hope.)
Cardinals (+3.5) over Bengals – Just because the Bengals were able to kick seven field goals for a win at Baltimore doesn’t mean they should be favored over anyone, particularly a pass-happy Arizona team.
Colts (-14.5) over Chiefs – If KC loses by 16 to Denver at Arrowhead, how much should a hobbled Indy team beat them by at home? No LJ + Brodie Croyle = blowout.
Jaguars (-2.5) over Chargers – Even if Quinn Gray is still under center, I’m going with the Jags. The Chargers offense has been nothing short of pathetic in the last couple of games, and these teams can trade back and forth on special teams.
Raiders (+5.5) over Vikings – Five and a half seems too much to give a Viking team with only Chester Taylor as a reliable offensive weapon this week.
Browns (-2.5) over Ravens – Why isn’t this line higher for the Browns? -2.5 implies the Ravens can score somehow or hold the Browns to a low score, and I haven’t seen them be able to do either to good teams.
Packers (-9.5) over Panthers – Carolina is an absolute mess and the Packers are one of the two top teams in the NFC.
Saints (-1.5) over Texans – The Saints are better than their record suggests, and the Texans are still hobbled. This is a road win that New Orleans needs.
Eagles (-10.5) over Dolphins – Again with the “bet against winless teams until they win” principle. New starting QB for Miami will make it worse.
Steelers (-9.5) over Jets – Kellen Clemens is still on a learning curve, the defense stinks, and the Steelers can run all over bad defenses.
Redskins (+10.5) over Cowboys – I smell trap game. Make it 9 points and you got me, but not 10 and a half. Jason Campbell is getting better by increments, and Washington plays pretty good defense.
Rams (-2.5) over 49ers – The Niners won their first two against NFC West foes and then just plummeted. A somewhat healthy Rams team should be able to win by at least a field goal.
Seahawks (-4.5) over Bears – Rex Grossman under center should still scare Bears fans enough, and he’ll throw one or two ill-advised picks.
Patriots (-15.5) over Bills – I don’t think the Bills can join the Browns and the Colts as teams that cover or push against the Patriots. Just a guess.
Broncos (-2.5) over Titans – Vince Young has been mediocre lately and the Titans defense may be without Albert Haynesworth yet again. The Titans will likely be able to run on the Broncos, but I’ll make a homer pick here.