A Fool and His Money, Week 3.

Last week’s 9-7 on the NFL picks puts me at .500 for the season (16-16). If you want to know how I do this, it’s off the Four-Letter’s Pick ‘Em page, which I entered AA’s contest for, and am losing badly. There are no pushes there if you’re playing by spread (it just rounds to a half point), so there will be no pushing here. Home team in caps.

RAVENS (-7.5) over Cardinals – Young NFC team goes on the road against tough AFC defensive team. I expect a couple of turnovers to provide the point margin for the spread.

PACKERS (+4.5) over Chargers – If you’re going straight picks, pick San Diego to win by all means, but their offense is sputtering right now and I think they’ll win by a field goal only.

Colts (-5.5) over TEXANS – I’m probably going to eat this one on Sunday because the AFC South is tougher as a division these days, but Andre Johnson says he isn’t playing this week with a knee sprain. Until I see Schaub hitting another WR for the big scores, let’s say Colts by 7.

Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS – Under normal circumstances I would take the shitty AFC team over the shitty NFC team, but despite Tavaris Jackson’s errata, I think Minnesota’s defense will get a crucial turnover or two.

PATRIOTS (-15.5) over Bills – Blowout city.

Dolphins (+3.5) over JETS – I’m not convinced that the Jets are that much better than the Dolphins as far as the offense goes.

Lions (+6.5) over EAGLES – Someone hasn’t been watching the last two games. The Eagles can and should win this, but giving them nearly a touchdown on the spread is silly.

STEELERS (-8.5) over 49ers – Second easiest call of the week.

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Rams – I’m not sure St. Louis can actually do anything offensively, never mind that they’re going on the road this week.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars – The Jags are better than both Buffalo and Oakland, but they don’t look like the second or third best team in their division any more; they don’t run it enough and they have no wide receivers. This may be the week Cutler and the Broncos offense snaps out of its red zone funk.

Browns (+3.5) over RAIDERS – I actually think Cleveland can carry last week’s momentum over into this week. I may be verging upon insanity.

Bengals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS – Seattle looked pathetic down the stretch at Arizona; I’ll take the AFC team, no matter how badly they played against the Browns last week.

Panthers (-3.5) over FALCONS – I’m surprised this is only a three and a half point line. The Falcons aren’t capable of producing much on offense and they can’t take away Steve Smith on the defensive end.

REDSKINS (-4.5) over Giants – Jason Campbell should be able to improve his passing stats significantly with that lousy secondary.

Cowboys (+3.5) over BEARS – No defense comes into the house of no offense. The Cowboys will score enough to win and take advantage of the inevitable Rex Grossman turnover.


3 Responses

  1. Rex Grossman stat line: 2 TDs, 0 turnovers. You heard it here first.

    — Ajax.

  2. I believe the 2 TDs. I don’t believe the 0 turnovers, sorry.

  3. Also, my advice is: don’t pick against the spread. Seriously, it clouds the issue, and no NFL team should ever be favored by more than two TDs against another. The Football Gods hate a sure thing, and will piss in the kiddie pool every time.

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