Last week’s 9-7 on the NFL picks puts me at .500 for the season (16-16). If you want to know how I do this, it’s off the Four-Letter’s Pick ‘Em page, which I entered AA’s contest for, and am losing badly. There are no pushes there if you’re playing by spread (it just rounds to a half point), so there will be no pushing here. Home team in caps.
RAVENS (-7.5) over Cardinals – Young NFC team goes on the road against tough AFC defensive team. I expect a couple of turnovers to provide the point margin for the spread.
PACKERS (+4.5) over Chargers – If you’re going straight picks, pick San Diego to win by all means, but their offense is sputtering right now and I think they’ll win by a field goal only.
Colts (-5.5) over TEXANS – I’m probably going to eat this one on Sunday because the AFC South is tougher as a division these days, but Andre Johnson says he isn’t playing this week with a knee sprain. Until I see Schaub hitting another WR for the big scores, let’s say Colts by 7.
Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS – Under normal circumstances I would take the shitty AFC team over the shitty NFC team, but despite Tavaris Jackson’s errata, I think Minnesota’s defense will get a crucial turnover or two.
PATRIOTS (-15.5) over Bills – Blowout city.
Dolphins (+3.5) over JETS – I’m not convinced that the Jets are that much better than the Dolphins as far as the offense goes.
Lions (+6.5) over EAGLES – Someone hasn’t been watching the last two games. The Eagles can and should win this, but giving them nearly a touchdown on the spread is silly.
STEELERS (-8.5) over 49ers – Second easiest call of the week.
BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Rams – I’m not sure St. Louis can actually do anything offensively, never mind that they’re going on the road this week.
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars – The Jags are better than both Buffalo and Oakland, but they don’t look like the second or third best team in their division any more; they don’t run it enough and they have no wide receivers. This may be the week Cutler and the Broncos offense snaps out of its red zone funk.
Browns (+3.5) over RAIDERS – I actually think Cleveland can carry last week’s momentum over into this week. I may be verging upon insanity.
Bengals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS – Seattle looked pathetic down the stretch at Arizona; I’ll take the AFC team, no matter how badly they played against the Browns last week.
Panthers (-3.5) over FALCONS – I’m surprised this is only a three and a half point line. The Falcons aren’t capable of producing much on offense and they can’t take away Steve Smith on the defensive end.
REDSKINS (-4.5) over Giants – Jason Campbell should be able to improve his passing stats significantly with that lousy secondary.
Cowboys (+3.5) over BEARS – No defense comes into the house of no offense. The Cowboys will score enough to win and take advantage of the inevitable Rex Grossman turnover.