Either I have no business guessing odds or I’m rusty as hell, because I seriously believed the Saints would cover the spread of 6.5 and would have a shot at taking the game. I forgot the cardinal rule: never pick a top-echelon NFC team over an AFC team — this wasn’t an offensive orgy so much as it was rough, brutal ass-fucking from one side, as the Colts dominated 41-10 with their defense coming out to play.
Won’t stop me from picking the rest of the week’s action, though:
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Bills – Weak Bills defense vs. Travis Henry. Mowdown.
Steelers (-3.5) vs. Browns – That can’t be right. Pittsburgh should be able to double that spread.
Eagles (-2.5) vs. Packers – I know Philly’s on the road, but that’s still an NFC North team they’re playing. A field goal should be a gimme putt.
Chiefs (+1.5) vs. Texans – Yes, it’s a road game, and I should know better, but the offense in Houston is not THAT much improved to pick them to win outright.
Titans vs. Jaguars (-5.5) – Let’s see how much VY can do with no one to help him, and no one to help that Titans’ D much, either. My guess is not much.
Falcons vs. Vikings (-2.5) – Picking between shitty teams is the worst. Minnesota gets the nod for home field only.
Patriots (-5.5) vs. Jets – Chad Pennington’s weak arm and a questionable O-line should mean a couple turnovers for New England on top of the usual offensive stats.
Panthers vs. Rams (-1.5) – I don’t trust Carolina to win outright with a shaky QB situation, do you?
Dolphins vs. Redskins (-3.5) – I like very little about Miami’s offense, and even less so on the road.
Lions (+2.5) vs. Raiders – We know Daunte Culpepper is fantasy kryptonite, but Josh McCown is non-existent, and if he’s starting, that should mean the Lions can clean up, despite the good Oakland D.
Bears vs. Chargers (-5.5) – Only because San Diego’s defense is good enough to steal a couple of Sex Cannon picks to make this a two-score game.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks (-6.5) – Unless Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander fall apart midway through the game, this should be a two touchdown game.
Giants vs. Cowboys (-3.5) – If the Cowboys can’t get up by a touchdown on the most dysfunctional team in the league, that’s sad.
Ravens (-3.5) vs. Bengals – I’m inclined to take “no offense” over “no defense”, because no defense makes no offense look good.
Cardinals vs. 49ers (-3.5) – No way I’m taking the Buzzsaw on the road until Russ Grimm proves that there is an offensive line there.
Photo: AP/AJ Mast