Mock Fantasy Football Drafting: 1st Round, Ninth Pick.

If you didn’t know, the Hazean’s been running a mock fantasy football draft, and now, it’s my turn. Let’s review the prior picks:

  1. LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
  2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
  3. Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts
  4. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
  5. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
  6. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
  7. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
  8. Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots

In the first two rounds of any draft, your choices ought to be RB or QB. Taking WRs this high is a fool’s errand. With that in mind, let’s review the possibilities here at both QB and RB:

Five QBs:

  1. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Even without Chris Henry for eight games, he still has Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh at the WRs, and those guys are probably second in a WR tandem to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne of the Colts. 28 TDs and over 4,000 yards passing is not a bad way to go.
  2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots – 24 TDs and 3,500 yards passing are pretty damn good with a cast of no-name receivers. I shudder to think of the fantasy potential with Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker out there. If Laurence Maroney is healthy, though, he will eat rushing yards, making passing less of an imperative.
  3. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – he was my fantasy QB last season, and was dynamite for 10 games until he got hurt. If Andy Reid has learned how to play call or passed some of that off to Marty Morninwheg, he might be able to stay healthy. However, who’s he throwing it to?
  4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Sick numbers last year, with most of the same weapons at WR and in the backfield with Reggie Bush; the only major loss is Joe Horn, and Marques Colston made him expendable.
  5. Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals – Before you laugh for consideration, remember that he will be throwing to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald for a full season. Whether his offensive line will protect him this year and allow Edgerrin James running room is the question.

Now, five RBs:

  1. Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks – Still one of the better runners in the league, but now has injury issues to be concerned about and didn’t look the same when his best blocker went to Minnesota.
  2. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals – Not a bad grab here, either. 1,300 yards and 13 scores. You might want someone who gets in the end zone more often, though.
  3. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers – Another attractive option. Generally the same stats as Rudi, and he’ll be asked to haul it a lot again with Ben Roethlisberger trying to take it slow in recovering from a sub-par season last year.
  4. Thomas Jones, New York Jets -Gets to be the primary runner on a team that didn’t have one. He’ll be carrying the ball a lot, but how many times he actually sniffs end zone are up in the air.
  5. Travis Henry, Denver Broncos – Was the alternative to Vince Young in Tennessee last season, and with Denver’s blocking up front, could be due for a huge year in order to take the pressure off of Jay Cutler to be everything to every one of us Horseheads.  Not in his favor: he’s older than some of the other backs, and I’m not sure if he’s a back ready to be The Man, despite prior 1,000-yard seasons. Plus, Mike Shanahan hates your fantasy team and will probably swap someone else in with him half the time.

Again, a tough spot to be in, and I’m not enamored with the RBs that are left enough to take one here, and since most of my success in fantasy leagues have come with a dominant QB, personal bias makes the choice much easier.

With the ninth pick in the Hazean’s Mock Fantasy Football Draft, I select Carson Palmer of the Cincinnati Bengals.

22 Responses

  1. Wow…Looking at this, the later picks in the first round are going to be hard to make a choice. Palmer should be money, it will be interesting to see what kind of RB you can come back with in the 2nd.

  2. I think you made the right choice.

    When it comes to your second-tier RBs, you really gotta look at the big picture to make your call. Willie Parker got some great protection last year, but the Steelers have the unfortunate (yet sensible, from a let’s-win-the-game perspective) tendency to hand the rock to a big body once the ball gets inside the 5. That cheats you out of a lot of points. Willie also doesn’t catch as many out of the backfield as some of his peers.

    Alexander and Henry I worry about injury, and T.J. is on a new team with an OL I have a lot of questions about. I’d probably go with Rudi as the safest option in that bunch, although Cinci is kind of pass-happy, which is what keeps him out of the first tier to begin with.

    — Ajax.

  3. RBs have the biggest bust potential: they have a high injury rate and high variance year to year. If you take a top-5 WR, you can be pretty sure you’re getting good production. You can fill out RBs later–there are always new RBs that emerge (sometimes when the RBs taken in the first round get injured). Paul Charchian calls a similar strategy “Do the opposite”: he suggests while everybody is running on RBs, you should take top QBs and WRs so you have the best at those positions, and you can still get some RB later (there are 32 teams after all).

  4. I never take a WR before the third round, not even the ones named “Owens” or “Johnson” or “Harrison.” Even the best WRs in the league are splitting time on every passing down, because there’s always at least one WR out there — and often a slot guy or a receiving TE, too. Also, players like T.O. and Chad and Marvin tend to be double-teamed, so you end up getting comparable fantasy production out of capable but less-regarded second WRs on the same team, your Chris Henrys and Reggie Waynes. And those guys stay on the board a lot longer than “name” WRs, so you can fill up on RB muscle in the early rounds.

    If you don’t have a first-choice RB on the block in round 1 or 2, take a QB. They’ll get more chances than even the studdiest of stud WRs.

    — Ajax.

  5. PV, there’s some solid thinking behind that, but I’d still hesitate to take a WR next round.

    Tino – I didn’t think any of the available options were really worth a first round pick. All five of those guys would be acceptable 2nd rounders if any of them are left.

  6. I think CP will have a huge year, but it would be tough for me to pass on a RB in the 1st round. I love to load up on RB’s in rounds 1-2 and even 3 and then go QB in 4 when I can get good value with someone like Cutler or Rivers.

    In your spot, I would have taken Alexander. I think he’s bouncing back big time this season.

    I’m a big fan of this little mock draft. If you do any others, as a new fantasy football blogger, I’d love to get in on it and talk about it on my blog, too.

  7. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  8. [...] by Next Gen Pro Football at #7, and Carson Palmer by my erstwhile Channel 4 News Team compatriot Signal To Noise. Other than that, it’s been all running backs, all the time, which is good fantasy drafting. [...]

  9. Carson could have a huge year. I’m personally really high on the guy.

  10. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  11. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  12. NGPF has made its pick. Come check it out.

  13. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  14. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  15. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  16. [...] Pro Football] Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots [Cheesesteaks & Stuff] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] Travis Henry, RB, Broncos [NFL Minute] Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals [FanProphet] Willie Parker, RB, [...]

  17. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  18. [...] Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals [Signal to Noise] [...]

  19. [...] Steve Smith. Palmer could have been somewhat of a reach in the first round, but something tells me Signal to Noise probably participates in a few expert leagues. Frank Gore was a possible fluke last season and may [...]

  20. I drafted 7th out of 10 owners

    1. (7) Frank Gore RB
    2. (14) Carson Palmer QB
    3. (27) Antonio Gates TE
    4. (34) Deuce McAllister RB
    5. (47) Andre Johnson WR
    6. (54) Braylon Edwards WR
    7. (67) Jacksonville DEF
    8. (74) Amani Toomer WR
    9. (87) Adam Vinatieri K
    10. (94) Warrick Dunn RB
    11. (107) Donte’ Stallworth WR
    12. (114) New York DEF
    13. (127) Ahman Green RB
    14. (134) LaMont Jordan RB
    15. (147) Jeff Garcia QB

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